Oscars 2016: Is This the Closest Best Picture Race in Years?
History states that it's normally between two movies for the Best Picture gong. Some years it's simply one movie primed to sweep up every award on the night. After yesterday's nominations were announced, this year's Oscars is set to march to a very different beat. It asked the question: is this the closest Best Picture race in years?
With the nominations now in the public domain, four films have put themselves in the position of taking it all — an unusual state of affairs for this time of year. The leaders of the pack are: The Revenant, The Big Short, Spotlight, and yes, you guessed it, Mad Max: Fury Road. Why are those four the frontrunners? Because they all own a nomination in the most important category if you want to win the big award of the night: Best Film Editing.
History will tell you that if you gain a nomination in Best Film Editing you're a genuine player in the Best Picture category. Yes, Birdman won Best Picture last year but didn't receive a corresponding Best Film Editing nomination (the first time in 34 years). But that movie was sold on the principle that is was a continuous take and cut within camera. We all know that Birdman featured a few secret cuts but its one-take marketing ploy was obviously going to negate it from landing that editing nomination.
If you look deeper, Spotlight and The Big Short could have a march on The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road for the big prize. Both have collected the three most important components — Best Picture, Best Film Editing and Best Screenplay nominations. Having your screenplay nominated in either original or adapted categories goes a long way with Oscar voters. Having said that, both Spotlight and The Big Short fall a long way behind The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road in terms of total nominations — who both earned 12 and 10, respectively. The films with the most nominations in general — although not every year — have the better chance of landing that Best Picture prize. More nominations simply suggest a stronger number of Academy members are backing your movie for success.
But enough with second guessing the possible outcome then comparing it to the pattern of history. Lets get down to what's really important when award season swings into town: money. This years nominations displayed a wide range of movies sat well with Academy members, which led to a lot of studios earning nominations. And, if you have an increased number of studios vying for a chance to win that coveted Oscar, you're going to have a bucket load of money dangled in front of you. Every vote counts in Tinseltown.
With money likely to be thrown around in abundance by the big studios, never rule out the supposedly "less rich" independents. No matter how big or small the studio is — money talks. So if you're looking for an outside bet to win Best Picture, look no further than A24's Room. Trust me, it has a genuine chance of upsetting the apple cart. It has key nominations in the right categories — Best Actress, Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay — to go along with its Best Picture nod. It also has an emotional narrative running in its favour — Academy members love a good sob story. But Room's biggest selling point is director Lenny Abrahamson's nomination. Everyone expected Ridley Scott to land a Best Director nom, especially after he was selected by the DGA in their annual awards. Yet, Oscar voters were clearly touched by Abrahamson's movie. That Scott omission could be a key component in Room's chances of success come Oscar Sunday. They thought differently and looked past the obvious candidate, and Room/Abrahamson was their choice. It has the much needed backing of Academy members which results in Room being involved on merit and not merely making up the numbers.
If you're thinking along the lines of the Academy going down a historical route, look no further than The Revenant and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu. If the director is successful on February 18, he'll become the third director in 65 years to win back-to-back Best Director Oscars, following John Ford in 1940 for The Grapes Of Wrath and 1941 for How Green Was My Valley, and Joseph L. Mankiewicz in 1949 for A Letter To Three Wives and 1950 for All About Eve. What could make Inarritu's feat even more special is if The Revenant wins Best Picture. No director has ever won back-to-back Best Picture and Best Director gongs (Grapes of Wrath and A Letter To Three Wives didn't win Best Picture).
Don't get me wrong a lot can change in the space of a month, and when the Oscars are concerned, it usually does. But, as it currently stands, I would suggest The Revenant and Inarritu are the favourites to win big this year. We may be on the verge of witnessing history?
